By: Richard DiRago
It’s so close. After almost a 100 days of nothing but absolute silence or back-and-forth negotiations that seemed like they were going nowhere, a new CBA was agreed to and America’s greatest pastime with meaningful games is set to return on April 7th. Hallelujah!
The second longest work stoppage in baseball history brought nothing but pain, irritation, and skepticism to fans (or at least to me) since Rob Manfred initiated the lockout on December 2nd. An April Opening Day seemed less and less likely as we got into March, but yet here we are on March 30th. We’re roughly two weeks into Spring Training and we actually have some baseball to watch and talk about.
With that, I felt it would be cool to come up with some AL East predictions for this season. However, instead of doing the typical, let’s predict each team’s regular season record or playoff finish, I decided to do 3 different scenarios for each AL East team:
- Their Best Scenario (the best thing that could happen),
- Their Bold Prediction (what you may not think will happen), and
- Their Worse Nightmare (the ultimate ‘I really don’t want to see this happen’).
Let’s see what each team could be facing this 2022 season.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES:
Best Scenario: Adley Rutschman pans out
These poor O’s. It’s been a rough last few years watching this team if you’re a fan of them. Averaging 51 wins since 2018 (excluding 2020) and not finishing above .500 since 2016, there hasn’t been a lot of motivation or urge to put this team on your TV (let alone attend games). However, this year may give you some reason to watch them because of someone named Adley Rustchman. Rustchman is the Orioles #1 prospect in their system and even better, he’s the #2 prospect in all of baseball. The former number one pick in the 2019 draft, this 24 year old switch hitting catcher out of Oregon State is a threat on both sides of the ball, earning at least a 60 on the 80 grade scale in hitting and fielding. Hitting 23 homers with a .899 OPS to go along with a low walk and strikeout rate (14.5% & 16.6%, respectively) between AA and AAA last year, Rustchman is performing exactly how the Orioles hoped he would be performing when they drafted him three years ago. He’s knocking on the big league door and we should expect to see him in the majors this year. Not only Orioles’ fans, but all of us baseball fans should be excited to see him this year. Nothing would be sweeter for Baltimore than him making a big impact as soon as he’s called up and living up to his hype.
Bold Prediction: Anthony Santander Takes Over This Team
What? Have you never heard of Cedric Mullins? Trey Mancinci? Heck, what about Ryan Mountcastle? All good questions there. However, this is a ‘bold’ prediction after all. I really like the player Santander is. Last season, Santander played in a career high 110 games where he hit .241/.286/.433 with 18 homers and 50 RBIs. Baseball Reference projects him to have a similar slash line (.248/.299/.452) with 20 homers and 61 RBIs. The slight increase in production is encouraging to see since Santander has shown flashes with his bat. Even though his power (career .207 ISO while the MLB averages are .171) is more of a threat than anything else in his arsenal, if he can cut down his strikeout rate (almost 25% in 2021) and work longer at bats (only 23 walks in 438 at bats last year), he’ll be a big contributor in this already weak O’s lineup.
Worse Nightmare: Prospects Fail Them
The Orioles currently have 5 Top 100 prospects in baseball, trailing only the Mariners, Pirates, & Marlins whom have 6. If anything that has taught us about the Orioles, it’s that the players they currently have on the field aren’t cutting it and their up-and-coming prospects hopefully will change their performance. The last thing the Orioles want is for these prospects not to be the difference-makers they hope they’ll be. They’re called prospects for a reason, though. Not all of them end up being the player they’re said to be, but if there’s anything that can help the Orioles turn a corner and climb out of this deep, dark hole they’re in, it’s their prospects. They aren’t spending any money (only 3 free agent signings for slightly over $7 million this offseason), so they’re going all in on their prospect’s potentials. It’d definitely be a nightmare if these youngsters don’t help this team out.
BOSTON RED SOX
Best Scenario: Trevor Story 2B Experiment Works
The Red Sox landed one of the top players on the open market this offseason, inking former Rockies SS Trevor Story to a 6yr/$140 million contract. Even though Story expressed not wanting to switch positions earlier this offseason, he decided for the Red Sox, he’ll welcome the switch to 2B with open arms as Bogaerts continues to man that position. The Sox now have arguably one of the top middle infields in the entire league with Story and nothing would be sweeter than seeing him excel in Year 1. Story did have pretty bad home/away splits last season (.203/.292/.426 slash line on the road compared to .296/.365/.515 at Coors), but joining a powerful lineup already with Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez, Verdugo, and Dalbec, could boost Story’s confidence. He had to love something about Boston when he accepted switching positions and it may be this lineup. Regardless of his splits, he still makes the Red Sox much more dangerous. He’s an average defender with a solid arm, so the transition to 2B should be seamless for him.
Baseball reference has Story finishing the year with a slight regress from numbers he put up in previous seasons (.265/.337/.486 with 24 homers and 69 RBIs in 567 Pas), so the switch away from Coors probably won’t affect him drastically. It doesn’t matter where Story plays either for this team. The fact that he’s a member of this ball club easily puts more fear into their opposition. I can confidently say this signing will be a good one for the Bo Sox.
Bold Prediction: Matt Barnes leads the American League in Saves
I really wanted to make a prediction about the Sox’s offense as they honestly are stacked top to bottom, but I couldn’t think of something really ‘bold.’ Thus, I switched gears to their pitching and decided to hop on the Matt Barnes train. Entering his 8th season with the Red Sox, Barnes was handed closing duties for the Red Sox last season. He saved 24 games in 31 save opportunities last year with a 37.8 K% (which was Top 2% in the league). Barnes does generate a lot of swings and misses (88 percentile in Chase Rate, 91 percentile in Whiff %, and 98 percentile in K% last year) and even when balls get put into play, he’s in the 97 percentile of xBA, meaning more than likely they’re turning into outs. The metrics like Barnes and I think I do too this year. He’s definitely one of the top arms coming out of their bullpen. With this offense, Barnes will get plenty of chances this season to close out a lot of games. He was an all-star last season. This season, he’ll be that AND the AL Saves Leader when all said & done.
Worse Nightmare: Chris Sale misses a big chunk of the 2022 season
This would be a huge “you got to be kidding me” moment for the Red Sox if Sale misses more time this season. Returning for Tommy John surgery, Sale threw 42.2 IP in 9 games started for the Red Sox late last season, but fell apart in the postseason (8.00 ERA in 3 games). He’s already expected to miss Opening Day this year as he begins recovering from a stress fracture in his rib cage that usually takes 6-8 weeks to heal, which tentatively has him returning to action around the third week of the regular season. Now that’s not a whole lot of missed time, but Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta currently lead the top of their rotation. The next three Red Sox starters tentatively are Tanner Houck, Michael Wacha, and…. a question mark. That back end of the Sox rotation is visibly very weak. The Red Sox need Chris Sale in their rotation all season long. They can’t go another season without their ace leading the charge and the more time he misses, the worse it’ll be for Boston.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Best Scenario: The Stop Gap Works
This has been the topic of discussion for the Yankees ever since March 13th when Brian Cashman shocked the Yankees universe by sending Gary Sanchez & Gio Urshela to the Twins for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Josh Donaldson, and Ben Rortvedt. It’s been brought up before, even before this offseason started, that the Yankees were planning to bring in a player to act as a stop gap at shortstop while top prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Pereza continue to develop in the minors. They’re putting all their chips to the center of the table on these guys, more specifically Volpe. The Yankees decided to pass on signing top shortstop free agents (Correra, Story, Seager, Baez) so they can hand the starting job over to their prized prospect when he’s MLB-ready. Before we get to see Volpe in the majors, Kiner-Falefa was acquired to be the Yanks’ stop-gap player.
The Yankees have had their eyes on Kiner-Falefa (or IKF, or Izzy, or Hawaiian Hustle) for a while and he’s already been a fan favorite. From stating he idolized Derek Jeter growing up, to posting old photos of him at Yankee Stadium with his father, it’s hard not to already like this guy. IKF won a gold glove at third base with the Rangers in 2020 and he will bring you lots of contact with his bat (in the 95 percentile in Whiff % in 2021) with very little strikeouts (13.3 K% in 2021). That’s exactly what the Yankees need, more contact & less strikeouts. These numbers remind me exactly of Didi Gregorius, which could be both a good and bad thing. He’ll swing a lot to and put the bat on the ball a lot, but he won’t work long at bats (4.1 BB% in 2021 and acareer .316 OBP). Later in his Yankees career, the lack of patience in Didi’s at bats were getting bothersome.
Wouldn’t it be amazing though if Kiner Falefa turns into Did 2.0 this season and we can hand Cashman back his “Cashgod” nickname? …. Too far? Okay, but this trade can actually end up being an underrated trade for the Yankees if IKF succeeds at his stop-gap role. They have upgraded defensively, even if Urshela is now gone, so this plan can actually work for the Bombers in the end. IKF just needs to produce on his end. But then what do you do with IKF long-term if he actually performs well? Eh, that’s a 2023 problem.
Bold Prediction: Rotation Leans Heavily on Deivi Garcia & Luis Gil
On paper, Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino looks beautiful to have at the top of their rotation. Then you remember the rough finish to the finish line Gerrit Cole had last season & that Luis Severino hasn’t thrown a full season since 2018 (Tommy John surgery) and now all of a sudden, your feelings may change about how lethal they could be in 2022.
Fear not because the Yankees do have some nice pitching depth in their system, two of which should make a big impact this season and provide some comfort in the rotation. Deivi Garcia is one of these guys. The former #4 prospect in the Yankees system back in 2019 according to MLB Pipeline, Garcia had a rough welcoming to the majors since being called up in 2020. In 42.2 IP, Garcia owns a 5.27 ERA (4.29 FIP) and even owned a 6.85 ERA in 90.2 IP in AAA last season. Yikes. That may be a little concerning, but it is still a small MLB sample size. Remember, this guy had comparisons to Pedro Martinez as he was carving up minor league hitters on his path to the majors. His fastball velocity this spring has even sky rocketed to an average of 95.5 MPH (averaged 92.2 last year) and even topped out at 96.8 MPH. That’s a great sign to see out of Spring Training.
Player two is Luis Gil. Currently the 10th ranked prospect in the Yankees farm system, Gil got his feet wet in the majors last season where he tossed 29.1 innings owning a 3.07 ERA (4.40 FIP) with a 11.7 strikeouts per nine in 6 games started. He’s always been a high velocity guy (would top out at 100 MPH in the minors), but his biggest flaw is his control. If he can lessen the walks (5.8 walks per nine) this season and use his velocity to his advantage, like Severino did when he came up to the majors, Gil can be a sneaky good weapon for the Yankees. He’s already looked sharp this Spring, tossing 5 innings in 2 relief appearances and allowing 2 hits with 6 strikeouts and 2 walks.
This isn’t to say Garcia and Gil will be the next Cole & Severino, but rather to prove even though the Yankees didn’t acquire another arm for their rotation, these two youngsters headline the pitching depth the Yankees have and will actually produce enough to be lethal weapons in their rotation this year, contrary to what most may think. There are definitely other options the Yankees can use in their rotation this year, but when we’re in September, we’ll be mainly talking about the domination of Garcia and Gil. I’m sure Matt Blake will have a lot to do with their success this season as well.
Worse Nightmare: The Red Sox and/or Mets Outperform Them
Imagine having a historic free agent class and the Yankees sit back and choose not to sign any of the top names on the open market. Heck, there were multiple players at Shortstop (Correra, Story, Seager, Baez) that was a position of NEED and they opted for a cheaper, one year ‘stop gap’ player instead. The Red Sox ended up signing Trevor Story themselves just the other week to now have one of the most dangerous middle infield duos in the league and their cross town rival even went out and spent over $258 million on free agents (3rd most this offseason according to Sportrac). The Yankees could’ve done so much more to improve their team, but they decided to only spend $38 million on free agents, make one big trade splash, and hope their top prospects in Volpe or Peraza exceed expectations next year (which is unfair to them honestly). As a Yankees fan, I saved this part in the entire article to write last about because I knew I would get very irritated typing these thoughts out (and I was right). Imagine living in a world where the Yankees are the worse team out of their two biggest rivals and they don’t spend any of their money to avoid it from happening… The second most valuable sport team in ALL OF SPORTS doesn’t spend money!! Man, I can’t picture it and I don’t want to imagine it, and that’s exactly why this would be the Yankees worse nightmare.
(Positive vibes though. The past is the past. This will be a great year for the Yankees!)
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Best Scenario: Wander Franco is Vladdy Jr 2.0
Being in the AL East, having to face the Blue Jays’ Vladdy Jr last year was a headache and a nightmare for teams. Imagine now needing to face a similar player with the same incredible potential as him… and he’s also in the same division?! Here comes Wander Franco. The former #1 prospect in all of baseball, Franco has a real shot to claim AL MVP honors in 2022. Being a finalist for the 2021 AL ROY (he was eligible for the award after meeting the rookie criteria) where Franco slashed .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 39 RBIS in 20 games with a 127 wRC+ and 2.5 WAR, we’ll be able to watch Franco for a full 162 game season this year. Sit back and enjoy the Wander Franco show everyone (unless you’re a fan of a team in the AL East) because it’s going to be a lot of fun seeing this guy ball out!
Bold Prediction: They’ll finish in Top 20 in Fan Attendance
This doesn’t look very bold on paper and I was actually going to predict the Rays going Top 15 in attendance, but that’s asking for too much, so I settled for Top 20. How id Top 15 ‘asking for too much?’ Well, we know the Rays don’t draw in fans. According to Statista, since 2009, the Rays have an average attendance of 9,513 while the MLB average is 18,900 (!!). They’re always dead last, or in the bottom three, of attendance, even with their recent success. Since 2018, they have won at least 90 games (excluding 2020), two division titles, and a World Series appearance. You would think with that recent success butts would be in their seats. I understand the location of The Trop isn’t the best and being a low-market team are valid arguments to support their poor attendance. However, it’s not unrealistic for a low-market team to have a sellout crowd (remember this?). Just imagine The Trop rocking like this in October!! Is it hard? Absolutely, but not impossible. I think the Rays can accomplish what the Pirates did in 2022. They have the team. They have the success. They *may* not have the best stadium location (*okay, they definitely don’t), but I think more fans will come out to more games at St. Pete in 2022 and their average attendance will go from Bottom 3 to Top 20.
Worse Nightmare: Rays get figured out
A big reason why the Rays have had so much success over the last few years is their analytics department. The way they shift their defense and how they introduced the ‘opener’ pitcher (which a lot of teams are starting to do themselves nowadays), the Rays have been ahead of the curve in terms of strategy. Now everyone knows who the Rays are. The banning of the shift, that will be introduced next year as part of the new CBA, may hurt the Rays the most out of any team defensively, but for at least this year, the league knows the Rays are one of the league’s top threats. They’re smart, they’re tough, and they won the AL East in two straight years. In 2022 however, the Rays may get figured out and will drop in the AL East standings.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Best Scenario: 2022 Division Champs
Wouldn’t this be something for the blue birds. Last winning the AL East crown back in 2015, the Blue Jays have a solid roster on paper headlined with reigning AL MVP runner-up Vlad Jr and 2017 World Series champion (and WS MVP) George Springer. With a more balanced pitching staff to pair with an offense that just added three-time gold glove winner Matt Chapman from the A’s and with the youngsters Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, and Teoscar Hernandez part of the starting nine again, this young Blue Jays team should not be overlooked this year. With how tough of a division the AL East is, if the Jays come across being the division champs, watch out because The Rogers Centre will be rocking like it’s 2015 again come October.
Bold Prediction: Starting pitching will carry this team, not the offense
When you add a player like Matt Chapman to an already powerful offensive lineup (and even had tons of rumors surrounding around Freddie Freeman coming to the northern border), you probably think of offense when it comes to the Blue Jays. However, you may forget the five-man rotation they also have. After signing Kevin Gausman (who had a career year with SF last season) and Yusei Kikuchi from SEA to join a staff that finished top 10 in WAR last year with Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoa, this rotation’s ceiling is very high, balanced, and I think underrated, even with reigning AL Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray going to the Mariners. As long as these starters stay healthy and give a solid 6 innings a game, the Jays will come out on the winning side of their games more often than not. Their bullpen is indeed a question mark and easily their biggest weakness, but this rotation is strong enough to keep them in ball games, especially when their offense is strong enough to keep putting runs on the board (finished 3rd in MLB in team runs in 2021). We know about the Jays offense, but let’s focus more on their pitching this year. They’re going to be fun.
Worse Nightmare: All-around Underperformances
Like stated above, if everything clicks for the Jays this year, they have a nice shot claiming the division crown. If they don’t? Well, it’s going to be hard to compete. With a young team like the Jays have, there could be a chance players don’t meet their expectations. Can Vladdy have a repeat MVP-caliber season? Does the loss of Marcus Semien hurt this team or does the signing of Matt Chapman (who slashed a poor .210/.314/.403 in 2021) revive them? Do the youngsters Alek Manoa and Nate Pearson take a step forward in the rotation? Is Teoscar Hernandez a real 30 homer, 100 RBI offensive machine? There’s lots of questions you can ask about this Jays team, but if they succeed, they’ll be a real threat. If they don’t, it’ll be a long season for them.
Cam's Corner 