The NFL Playoffs are here, and the matchups are set. The Wildcard Weekend is jam-packed with great games that I can’t wait to watch. Below are my predictions and best bets for each game.
Saturday
Rams at Panthers
In a stupid rule with the NFL, the 8–9 Carolina Panthers will host the 12–5 Los Angeles Rams, because football divisions and seeding are dumb. A team with a losing record should not be able to host a playoff game, but I digress.
These two teams face off for the second time in the season. In the first game, also in Carolina, the Panthers shockingly upset the Rams, winning 31-28 with a good game from Bryce Young and a bad game by Stafford and the Rams offense. That was a huge upset as the line wasn’t much different than this weekends, the Rams were -9.5 then and are -10.5 this weekend.
I do expect a different outcome this time. The Rams, who haven’t been playing their best ball going into the playoffs, should be getting Davante Adams back, which will be a huge boost to this offense. Pair that with Puka on the other side, a good running game with Kyren Williams, a pretty good defense, and the best coach in football in my opinion, Sean McVay and I think the Rams are going to win this one.
I think the Panthers shouldn’t be allowed to be in the postseason with an 8-9 record. I do like some of their pieces, I just don’t think they’re there yet. I think they still need to add a number of players to this roster. I like McMillan as a wide receiver, I think they have a pretty good backfield, and I like their coach, but I just think the Rams’ talent will be too much. As long as the Rams take care of the football, they should be able to win this one handily.
For my best bet on the game, I don’t think I can lay the 10.5 with the Rams. It’s too big a number. I do think they will score a lot of points though. They scored 28 against the Panthers in the first game and that was with three turnovers.
Best Bet: Rams Team Total Over 29.5
Packers at Bears
In a classic NFC North rivalry game in Soldier Field on a cold Saturday night, these two teams face off for the third time this season, having split the first two games.
This is a weird line—the Packers are favored by 1.5 going to Chicago. When I first saw this line, I didn’t really understand it. It doesn’t make sense to me that the road team is a favorite in what should just be a pick’em game, but you should be favoring the home team if that’s the case. That tells me that if this game were in Green Bay, the Packers would be 4.5-point favorites?
The Packers have stumbled into the playoffs. Jordan Love’s been banged up. Micah Parsons is out for the year. Christian Watson’s been banged up. They haven’t been playing well, and yet they’re favored going to Chicago.
Chicago, on the other hand, great running game, a good offensive line, an up-and-down defense, but one that can show up when it matters, and a quarterback that even though I’m not very high on, has made some plays this year. I like the coach for Chicago, Ben Johnson. He’s really elevated this offense and knows how to get the best out of his QB.
I expect this game to be ugly. I expect this game to be cold. I think both teams want to run the ball if they can. Both teams want to control the time of possession. I don’t think they’re going to ask too much of their quarterbacks in this one.
I think I barely lean toward Chicago. I think Chicago wins this game by about a field goal. I would just take them because they’re at home in front of that crowd. I predict that they’ll lean on their run game and let Caleb work off of play-action when needed.
I expect an ugly low scoring type of game. I could see a 16-13 type win for Chicago.
Best Bet: Bears ML (+100)
Sunday
Bills at Jaguars
Another weird, weird line where a six-seed Buffalo Bills team is favored on the road going to the 13-win Jags team that’s won eight in a row and is playing as good as anybody in the NFL right now.
As much as it pains me—since I’ll be rooting for the Bills—I like Jacksonville in this game. They’re +1.5, and they are the hottest team in football.
Liam Coen has changed this offense and has changed Trevor Lawrence for the better. Trevor Lawrence is playing his best football that he’s ever played and arguably the best football of any QB in the last month.
I also think Buffalo has too many flaws on this team.
I understand everyone’s saying that there’s no Lamar, there’s no Burrow, there’s no Mahomes, so this is Allen’s best chance to get to the Super Bowl, and path-wise it very well could be. But team-wise, this is the worst team Josh Allen has had in years.
I know they have James Cook, the rushing champion. They have a good offensive line and they have decent tight ends, if they can stay healthy. They have awful receivers and a below-average offensive coordinator. Not to mention, a head coach who coaches not to lose in the playoffs and always seems to crumble in the biggest spots.
The stat that everyone keeps throwing out there when talking about this Bills team is that they have the best pass defense in football. Everyone using this stat has not watched a Bills game. That’s a box-score stat.
They have the best pass defense in football because they have one of the worst rushing defenses in football. Teams don’t have to pass on them, they don’t attempt that many passes in a game because they don’t need to. This stat has to come with context.
The Bills’ defense, if you watch the games, is not very good and is severely injured. They don’t get a consistent pass rush, they don’t have great linebacker play, and they have decent cornerbacks. They have a safety, Jordan Poyer, who was contemplating retirement, whom they elevated from the practice squad in late October because they had no other option at a significant position on their defense. The worst part is that he’s been one of their best defensive players.
The Jags, on the other hand, have a great run defense, good weapons, a great coach, and a quarterback who’s on fire.
If this game were in Buffalo, I’d have a different thought, but I would lean toward Jacksonville in this game.
It’s hard to pick against Josh Allen because of how good he’s been in the playoffs. He’s been one of the best quarterbacks of all time in the playoffs.
The two things that scare me for the Bills are the health of Josh Allen. He has not been healthy down the stretch; he’s clearly banged up with his ankle and foot. And more importantly, the Bills don’t have a kicker. Prater went out again last week. They will not have a kicker that they can rely on in this game. They’re going to have to sign someone off a practice squad or sign a free agent who has barely kicked this year.
On the other side of the field, the Jags have arguably the best kicker in football in Little, who made a 67-yarder last week with room to spare.
Those things matter in the playoffs. Those things matter late in the game. I think this game will be close, but everything favors the Jags slightly.
Best Bet: Over 51.5
49ers at Eagles
Now, if you asked me about this game two weeks ago and you said this would be the first-round matchup, I would have said I love San Francisco. Brock Purdy was rolling in Week 16 and Week 17. Week 18 came around and the Seahawks absolutely stifled the 49ers offense, and it changed my opinion completely on this game.
Now, I’m the first person to say how overrated a quarterback Jalen Hurts is. I think he has arguably the best roster in football, and I think he is the sole reason that the Eagles’ offense has struggled so much. If you put about 10-12 quarterbacks in his spot, the Eagles are better. And if you put an elite quarterback in his spot, the Eagles would steamroll every team.
That being said, I will take Philly in this game. The line is 4.5. I don’t know if I would lay that. I think it’s going to be close-ish. I see the Eagles winning by anywhere from 3–10.
I would just say, because the game is in Philly, where it’s tough to win, I would lean toward the Eagles. They have a great defense. They have a good O-line. They have experienced players. They have the better roster. I think they’ll do enough to outlast the 49ers.
I like Brock Purdy, I like Kittle, and I like McCaffrey. I just think the Eagles will be able to shut those three down. With the injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the 49ers, with Warner and Bosa, I don’t think they’ll have enough to completely stop the Eagles’ offense.
I don’t love the Eagles’ offense, but I think if the Eagles’ offense can put up 17, they’ll win this game. In another close game that should be a fun watch, give me the home team.
Best Bet: Jalen Hurts Rushing Attempts Over 6.5
Chargers at Patriots
Another highly anticipated game between two great young QBs. I’m not the biggest believer in the Patriots, but I also don’t love the Chargers. I think in a cold New England night, I’m going to lean Patriots. I think they win a close game.
The Chargers’ offensive line issues are going to be too much in this one. I don’t think Herbert’s going to have a lot of time to throw, and I don’t believe in their run game enough. Herbert’s hand is banged up, and every hit will continue to make it worse. I like Vrabel as a coach. I think he’ll do enough to slow the Chargers’ offense down.
I also think Maye will do just enough on New England’s offense to pull this game out. I think Stefon Diggs is the X factor. I think he’ll be able to get open in those short/intermediate routes from the slot.
Ultimately, I think it’ll be a field goal game, though. The line is Chargers +3.5. Again, I don’t think I would take it either way. I expect a narrow win by New England.
I like both coaches. I like both quarterbacks. I would just lean the home team in this game because of Drake Maye’s ability to do something late. So, give me the Patriots in a close one.
Best Bet: Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Catches
Monday
Texans at Steelers
My favorite game of the whole weekend in terms of betting. Give me the Texans -2.5. This line that does not make sense to me.
The Ravens’ trip to Pittsburgh last week was -3.5, indicating that Vegas believes the Ravens are a better team than the Texans.
I don’t love the Texans because of their offense, but I will take them all day and every day at -2.5 against the Steelers.
I know the game is in Pittsburgh. I know they have a legend and veteran QB in Aaron Rodgers. Give me the Texans’ defense against that awful Steelers offense.
If anyone watched the Steelers–Ravens game last weekend, it was all dink-and-dunk passes from Rodgers, other than a couple intermediate ones and then the wide-open one at the end of the game where the defender fell. Other than that, they dink and dunk.
They’ve got to get the ball out of Rodgers’ hands fast because he doesn’t like getting hit and he can barely move. The Texans’ defense will be aware of this. They’ll press up on the receivers.
I know Metcalf will be back for the Steelers, but the Texans have the cornerbacks to cover him. And again, with the Texans’ pass rush, the ball will have to come out so fast that you won’t have to worry about Metcalf beating you deep.
I don’t see Rodgers having more than a few seconds to throw the ball on every snap, with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter rushing on the edges. I think the Texans’ defense is going to make life hell for Rodgers and that offense.
On the other side, I think Stroud can do enough to win this game. I think the Texans win it with a score of around 23–13. Something ugly. Something low scoring.
But I love the Texans. They’re a team that can travel anywhere and win because of their defense. I think they probably prefer to play in cold weather where they can make the game ugly.
I think the defense will travel, and the offense will get enough done with Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, and Woody Marks against that Steelers defense.
Best Bet: Texans -2.5
Bonus Bet: Texans Defense Anytime Touchdown (+800)
Cam's Corner 