Looking back at last week, my predictions were 4-2, missing only the Bills over the Jaguars and the 49ers over the Eagles. My best bets were 3-3, but my bonus bet of the Texans D to score a TD was a nice little +800 hit.
We are onto the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. What’s most enticing about these games is that in each game, I could see either team realistically winning. The parity in the NFL right now is unbelievable.
Saturday
Bills at Broncos
The sixth-seed Bills head to Denver to face the one-seed Broncos in a highly anticipated matchup. Buffalo is coming off an unbelievable, gutsy win in Jacksonville last weekend, where Josh Allen played almost a perfect game.
What stood out to me was that Allen didn’t need to go into his usual superhuman mode—scrambling around and making ridiculous off-script plays. He made a couple of highlight throws, but this performance was more about his mind and pre-snap recognition. It was methodical, almost Brady-esque, just marching down the field and consistently hitting the four or five-yard open receiver.
Then, when they needed it most on the final drive, he read the defense before the snap. There was a free rusher coming right up the middle, and Allen recognized that the cornerback was going to double Khalil Shakir on an out route. Before the corner even moved, Allen threw a post to Brandin Cooks—off his back foot, 40 yards in the air, right on the money. That was the highlight of the game.
It was one of the most impressive performances I’ve seen from him in his entire career. Again, it wasn’t about scrambling or chaos—it was about knowing the defense and picking it apart. And let’s be clear: that was a very good Jacksonville team. Trevor Lawrence made a couple mistakes, but overall they’re a strong team, and that was a big win for the Bills.
Now Buffalo has to do it again against a great Denver team, the number-one seed in the AFC. Denver’s identity is their defense. They arguably have the best cornerback in football in Patrick Surtain, and they consistently get pressure with just four rushers. Their pass rush is excellent without needing to blitz, which allows them to drop more players into coverage and make life difficult for opposing QBs.
On the other side of the ball, Bo Nix leads the Denver offense, and I’m still not sure how much I trust him. This season, he often struggled for three quarters and then showed up in the fourth, leading a key touchdown drive or having a strong final quarter to win the game. Denver won a lot of close games, largely because of how dominant their defense was.
This game should be a battle. The line opened at Bills -1.5 and has now moved to a Denver -1.5.
Buffalo is dealing with injuries at wide receiver, losing Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers to torn ACLs last week. A lot of people may not recognize those names, but Bills fans know how important they are. They’re Buffalo’s two best blocking wide receivers, and that’s a big concern in this matchup.
Denver’s main defensive weakness is their run defense. The Bills want to run the ball, especially since they couldn’t establish the run against Jacksonville. Without those blocking wide receivers on the outside, I’m not sure how effective Buffalo will be running outside. They’ll likely have to run more between the tackles. Denver can adjust to that, force James Cook toward the perimeter, and without strong blocking by the WRs, Cook may not be able to break any long ones.
Another reason Buffalo makes me nervous is Josh Allen’s health. Sean McDermott said Allen is “sore” but will do “whatever it takes to play”. That doesn’t sound like someone who’s fully healthy. Allen is clearly banged up—he already had a foot and ankle issue, then hurt his knee on a goal-line touchdown last week, and later jammed his finger on a lineman’s helmet.
He doesn’t look like he wants to scramble as much, or even can scramble as much, as he usually does. That’s going to matter against Denver’s pass rush. With Allen’s health concerns and the receiver injuries, it’s hard to know how much Buffalo can do offensively against this elite Denver defense.
On the other side, Buffalo’s pass defense has been strong. Their weakness is stopping the run, but Denver doesn’t have an elite rushing offense. I honestly don’t know which way to lean in this game—it feels like a toss-up. If I had to choose, I’d lean Buffalo because of the quarterback advantage, but I could easily see this going either way.
Best Bet: James Cook Over 76.5 Rushing Yards
49ers at Seahawks
In the third matchup of the season, San Francisco travels back to Seattle. The Seahawks opened as 7-point favorites, largely due to George Kittle’s season-ending Achilles injury, which is just brutal news for the 49ers.
It’s yet another All-Pro–level player lost for San Francisco. First it was Nick Bosa, then Fred Warner, now George Kittle. Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t played a single snap this season. The injuries just keep piling up, and yet Kyle Shanahan keeps winning with this team. It’s the most impressive coaching job in football this year. I don’t care what the Coach of the Year odds are—Kyle Shanahan should win it for what he’s done while losing his starting quarterback, his two best defenders, his tight end, and his number-one receiver. None of it has mattered. They’re in the Divisional Round because of him.
That said, I do think this is where the road ends for San Francisco. I like Brock Purdy, and I like what this team has done. I think they’ll keep the game relatively close, but Seattle’s defense is just too good. We saw that in Week 18 when these teams played—Seattle completely dominated that game.
Now, with two full weeks of rest, this Seahawks defense should be able to get after Purdy. With limited weapons to throw to, I like Seattle to control this game, win it, and keep San Francisco’s offense in check.
I don’t fully trust Sam Darnold yet, but I don’t think he’ll need to do much here. If Seattle gets to 17 points, that should be enough. This is a good test for Seattle, though, because looking ahead, they’ll likely face either the Rams or the Bears next week, and Darnold will have to make big-time throws in that matchup.
Against a banged-up San Francisco defense, you’d like to see Darnold make some of those throws in this game to build confidence going forward. I expect a few sacks on Purdy, a couple of turnovers, and Seattle to control the game with the running attack.
I like Seattle in this spot. I like them to win, and I even like them to cover the 7. That’s how good I think this Seattle defense is.
Best Bet: Seahawks -7
Sunday
Texans at Patriots
Before I dive into this game, I just want to go on a little tangent about how horrible the NFL is about caring more about making money than they do about player safety. The NFL’s need to have a Monday night playoff game on Wild Card Weekend instead of just having three games on Saturday and three games on Sunday is infuriating and so disingenuous to the players. I understand it’s for TV ratings, revenue, and to expand the Wild Card Weekend to three days so we get three days of football, but it doesn’t take into account players’ health at all.
I’m not a Patriots fan. I’m not a Texans fan. But the fact that Nico Collins gets a concussion on Monday night because they’re playing on a Monday instead of a Saturday or Sunday, and now it’s almost going to be impossible for him to clear concussion protocol, is not fair. On the other hand, Christian Gonzalez suffered a concussion on Sunday and is expected to clear concussion protocol in time for the game this upcoming Sunday.
So now, in a league driven by stars, we now have one of the biggest wide receivers in the league out with a concussion because he has to play six days after. He would have had a chance to pass concussion protocol if they played on Saturday or Sunday, but because of the NFL, Nico Collins will be out in this game. I needed to get that off my chest before getting into my prediction because I think it’s absolutely ridiculous and not fair to the players who are making the money for the NFL.
On to my game prediction. The Patriots open up as 2.5 favorites at home against the Texans. I think that line is spot on, and I will be taking the Patriots -2.5 to win this game. As I just stated, Nico Collins will be missing this game. The Texans’ offense has already struggled this year, specifically last week against the Steelers.
CJ Stroud put the ball on the ground three or four times, threw an awful pick in the red zone, and they still won by 20-plus points. If he does that against the New England Patriots, they will lose by 20-plus points. I just don’t see how the Texans produce enough offense against the Patriots without Nico Collins.
On the other side, I know how amazing the Texans’ defense is. It is legit, starting with their front four that consistently gets pressure on the quarterback. I just think the Patriots’ offense will do enough to win this game. I think Drake Maye is mobile enough to escape the pocket and create plays with his legs, extend plays, or run for first downs.
I think the Texans didn’t have to even worry about Rodgers running, so they didn’t even have to spy. They didn’t have to think about it. I think in this game, they will have to. I think Drake Maye, being a second-year quarterback in the playoffs, is going to look to use his legs as much as possible. He had 61 rushing yards last week against the Chargers and now faces an even better pass rush.
I think the Texans’ defense will keep this game close because of how good they are. But in the end, I think the Patriots’ defense will either force a couple of short fields and a couple of turnovers, and they will ultimately win this game.
Best Bet: Patriots -2.5
Rams at Bears
Final game of Divisional Round weekend: Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears. This line opened up at Rams -4.5 going to Chicago. It’s a tricky, tricky line and a tricky, tricky game. Everything says the Rams should win this game. They have the better coach, the better quarterback, the better receivers, just the better overall team.
But the game is in Chicago, where the weather doesn’t look great. It’s supposed to be windy, cold, chance of snow — the exact recipe the Chicago Bears want in this game. If this game was in LA, the line would be either 7.5 or 8.5 favoring LA, and I’d be all over LA.
The Rams want it to be good weather, where they can throw the ball, use the receivers, and score 30-plus points. The Bears, on the other hand — although they can win high-scoring games like they did last week against the Packers — would rather it be ugly, would rather it be cold weather. They want to run the ball, kill the clock and let Caleb work some of this fourth-quarter magic that he’s been working the last few weeks.
The line is too difficult to choose one way or the other because I think the Rams ultimately win this game because of Stafford and McVay, but I would not lay 4.5. I think it’s too much. I think this game stays close throughout. In the end, I just trust Stafford to make a big-time throw or McVay to dial up a great play.
Best Bet: Kyren Williams ATD (+125)
Bonus Bet for the Weekend: James Cook to lead the weekend in Rushing Yards (+300)
Cam's Corner 